Take your pick of any rugby league media product covering Leeds Rhinos from rounds 2-20 of the 2026 Super League season, and you’ll likely spot a recurring theme. The idea that Leeds were, at least, going to be in the Grand Final at Old Trafford seemed a certainty, and they wouldn’t have been too far off being favourites for the whole thing. Yet now, if you analyse any of the sentiments towards them over the last few rounds, they are rarely spoken about like a team that is only 80 minutes from that Grand final. 

Most worrying for the Rhinos is the fact that all concerns are probably justified. Just three weeks ago, in the aftermath of their home-battering at the hands of Wigan, I wrote extensively on just what the problems were for Brad Arthur’s side, so to go over them again would be going over well-trodden ground. In short, as the Rhinos became ravaged by injuries, their difficulties in creating any attacking opportunities against the big sides became apparent, and simultaneously defensive frailties were laid bare. 

Of course, since that game, a few of the important players that had been missing in the losses against Leigh and Wigan, like James McDonnell and Keenan Palasia, are back. But at the same time, in addition to Lachie Miller’s hamstring popping after seven minutes against Wigan, Ash Handley (who had replaced Miller at fullback against Hull FC) and Jack Bird managed to get themselves injured in Leeds’ week off. The Rhinos are now staring down the barrel of a playoff semi-final with Fergie McCormack at fullback in his fifth senior game and his brother Ned at centre in only his twelfth. In a comedic worsening of fates, in the midst of writing this exact paragraph, Maika Sivo has been ruled out once more for Leeds, and I assume the problems of relying on 38-year-old Ryan Hall as main try-scorer won’t have improved from two weeks ago.

Such is the nature of sports fans’ short attention spans, the decline in positivity towards the Rhinos was about as dramatic as its rise. Having travelled to Las Vegas to beat quadruple-winning Hull KR 58-6 in round three, Leeds ended their season being booed off by their own fans at half-time in their eventual 18-12 loss to Hull FC in round 27. Put simply, it has been over a month since the Rhinos have been a convincingly good side.

With the dramatic fall-off in fortunes, it isn’t really clear anymore what constitutes a successful season for Leeds? For one of the competition’s biggest sides, with the way that they started the year, is anything short of a win in the Grand Final a failure? Or would reaching it be enough?

Statistically, the numbers do still flatter Leeds. Despite missing six games with a broken arm (yes, only six), nobody has been able to catch Maika Sivo as the league’s top try-scorer. Jake Connor, even if his side’s late collapse dented his chance to win back-to-back Man of Steel awards, still sits atop the try assist rankings with 43, a staggering 14 clear of Jackson Hastings in second place. 

Leeds, and players with great statlines like Connor and Sivo, have been followed for much of the season by a feeling that they haven’t been able to do it in the ‘big’ games. The problem with this statement is of course that what constitutes a ‘big’ game is a completely subjective measure, meaning that the merit of it is in the eye of the beholder. It is true that the Rhinos have lost both league fixtures against Wigan at an aggregate score of 64-12, and that they lost at the first time of asking in the Challenge Cup to Wakefield. But they also beat Wakefield twice in the league this year, as well as beating Warrington (their opponents on Friday night), Hull KR, and St Helens all twice. Admittedly, quite where Hull FC doing the double over them fits into this isn’t as clear. 

They’ve also faced the accusation that they are under extra pressure to provide results this season because they have an extensive list of departing players. The validity of this idea has fluctuated extremely depending on Leeds’ form. Replacing the departing Brodie Croft, Harry Newman, Mikolaj Oledzki, and James McDonnell among others with Dylan Walker, Nick Cotric, and the returning Morgan Gannon seems okay and manageable when you’re thinking about it on the way home from beating St Helens. It’s less of an attractive prospect when you’re watching Lennon Clark score a dagger in the final game of the season. 

Warrington coach Sam Burgess may already have the wheels of the Wayne Bennett-esque mind games of talking about the difference in rest periods between the remaining sides in motion, but the equation for Leeds remains simple. In spite of all the reasons to feel pessimistic for the Rhinos, if Leeds can find 80 minutes of the rugby that saw them as the best side in Super League for much of 2026, then they should make it past a Warrington side they have already beaten twice this year. The exact personnel from that dominant side may not be all present, but if there is a coach in Super League who you imagine will be able to get his side up for a game, it may just be Brad Arthur.